In New York, almost half the restaurants that received a Michelin star had closed by the end of 2019. Among well-reviewed restaurants without a star, one in five.

Picture this: November, the Michelin Guide ceremony. A restaurant in Marbella receives its first star. That night the phone does not stop and the booking form fills up in English, German and Arabic. Three months later, the landlord asks to talk about renewing the lease. A year later, your sous-chef gets an offer from another group.

A star is celebrated as an ending. The most serious study I know of what comes next suggests it is a beginning, and not always of something good.

The study.

Daniel Sands, of UCL’s School of Management, published an analysis in the Strategic Management Journal in 2024 of the Michelin Guide’s arrival in New York in 2005, the first time it left Europe. He gathered the 276 restaurants that opened between 2000 and 2014 and received a starred New York Times review in their first year, and followed them until 2019.

Of those, 92 received a Michelin star. By the end of 2019, 42 had closed, or 45.7%. Of the 184 that did not, 35 closed, or 19%. And those that closed with a star did so, on average, after 8.05 years in business, against 9.2 for the rest.

Why, according to the restaurateurs themselves.

The author interviewed restaurateurs and reviewed what they had told the press. Four pressures emerge. Landlords bargain harder when they see success, and failing to reach an agreement with them was a recurring reason for closing. Suppliers of the very best have few substitutes. The team that holds the standard becomes more visible and gets offers. And the public changes, and expects more.

One interview sums it up: “It was just a quick bump. In the first year of getting the star, things definitely got busier though,” and, the interviewee went on, “we had lots more tourists coming in. You know, people in town that just want to see something special.” The same restaurateur had reorganised the seating schedule and added bigger tables to make guests more comfortable, while recognising it would bring in no extra revenue.

What the study does not say.

It is an association, not proof of cause. It is one city, with its own rents, and it ends before the pandemic. It says nothing about Spain or Switzerland, nor about Repsol Suns or Gault&Millau. I do not turn it into a European rule. I turn it into a question for anyone aiming for a star or who has just received one.

The blind spot: a star changes the public.

Almost everything written about stars is about the cooking. What interests me most in the study is something else: a star brings in different people. A passing public arrives, from other countries, who come to see something special with an expectation set not by the restaurant but by the guide and the reviews.

That expectation can be managed before it reaches the table. The website is where you explain what an evening in that dining room is like: how long the menu lasts, what it costs, what cannot be changed. It is also where you decide whether your regulars can still find a table when the waiting list fills up with visitors.

A star does not change the cooking. It changes who sits at the table.

Where I stand.

I do not think a star is a curse, and I would not tell anyone to turn one down. I think it should be prepared for like an opening: with the lease, the team and the suppliers reviewed before the ceremony, not after. And with a website that explains the experience precisely, in the languages of the new public, so that you set the expectation rather than someone else’s review. The guide awards the star. What your guests expect, you can tell them beforehand.

What I would check.

• The lease. When it expires, and how much room you will have to negotiate with a star on the door.
• The key team. Who holds the standard, and what reasons they have to stay.
• What your website explains. Length, price, restrictions and what cannot be changed, before booking.
• Languages. Whether the website and the booking speak the language of the public that arrives with the star.
• Your regulars. How the people who came before the award still find a table.

Where to start.

1. This week

   Look at the contracts

   When the lease expires, and the agreements with suppliers who have no substitute.

2. This month

   Write the experience

   A page describing an evening at your table, with price and length, in all your languages.

3. This quarter

   Look after your regulars

   A direct way for regular guests to book before anyone else, without depending on a platform.

4. Every season

   Measure who comes back

   What share of your guests return, and whether that changes after an award.

A question almost no restaurant asks before the star and almost all ask after: who are you cooking for today? Not who you would like to cook for. Who actually books, on an ordinary Tuesday.

Now imagine the phone rings tomorrow with the news. How many of those Tuesday guests would still find a table three months later? And what would your website say to the ones who do not?

If you would like me to review whether your website is ready for the audience a star brings, start with the Strategic Diagnostic. Whether aiming for a star pays off is for you to decide with your numbers, not a designer.